The $SIVE Breadcrumbs
Six confirmed connections to hyperscalers and AI chipmakers, a $799M pipeline, and why I think $SIVE is undervalued.
The $SIVE Breadcrumbs: Introduction
$SIVE is sitting at about 12.6 billion SEK right now. That is roughly $1.3 billion USD. That is also down about 61% from its all-time high of 110 SEK per share, or roughly $3.36 billion in market cap, reached on June 3, 2026. Here is the thing that gets me. That price, even after that drop, is for a company where none of its biggest partnerships have actually turned into real volume revenue yet. Zero of them. Every relationship I am about to walk you through is confirmed to exist and confirmed to be moving toward production, but almost none of it has hit real revenue on the AI and hyperscaler side yet.
If even one of these connections partially executes, meaning it goes from confirmed relationship to actually shipping in real volume, I think this valuation looks silly in hindsight. Not all six connections. Not even most of one. Just one connection starting to convert into real numbers the market can point to.
This is my own opinion, not a guarantee, but I think a $10 billion market cap is realistic in the short term if any single connection here starts turning into real revenue. That is roughly a 7.7x from where we sit today. I am not saying it happens next quarter. I am not saying it is guaranteed. But that gap, between one connection starting to execute and where the stock trades today, is why I have not been this excited about a small cap in a long time.
Here is the obvious question that deserves a direct answer. If this is real, why isn’t the stock already at $10 billion. The market generally discounts relationships like these until they actually turn into purchase orders and recurring revenue, not when they are merely disclosed. My thesis is not that these six relationships exist. They already do, and that part is not really in dispute. My thesis is that the market is underpricing what happens once even one of them converts into sustained, recurring production revenue instead of a disclosed partnership sitting on paper.
That is the whole thesis of this series in one paragraph. Now let me show you why.
Six connections, one small Swedish laser company
I could honestly write forever about these partnerships. This one small Swedish laser company has six real, confirmed connections sitting one or two steps away from some of the biggest hyperscalers and chip companies in the world.
That is what this series is about. I have spent a lot of time going through every filing and press release I could find, tracing where each partner’s technology actually ends up, and figuring out what is confirmed versus what is just community guessing. This series is going to walk through each of the six connections, one at a time, and every part is going to come back to that same question. Is this the connection that closes the gap between $1.3 billion and $10 billion.
Who is Sivers?
Sivers Semiconductors is a Swedish photonics and wireless company, ticker SIVE on Nasdaq Stockholm, built around something genuinely useful: high precision laser chips. Photonics is the segment that matters most for this series. Wireless (the radio chips used in 5G, 6G, and satellite communication) is real too, but it is mostly a separate story. The company does around $33 million a year in revenue today, against a disclosed pipeline of potential future business that grew 77% in the first five months of 2026 alone, hitting $799 million. That is a small company with a pipeline more than twenty times its current revenue. That gap is the whole reason this stock has people watching it closely, and it is exactly the gap behind the valuation case above.
The problem Sivers is actually solving
To understand why any of these six connections matter, it helps to understand the physical problem sitting underneath most of them.
For years, the chips inside an AI data center, the GPUs and custom accelerators doing the actual training and thinking, have talked to each other over copper wires. Same basic idea as a phone cable. That works fine at small scale. But modern AI clusters connect thousands of chips together, and copper hits hard physical limits. Past a certain distance and speed, it needs more and more power just to push a signal through, it generates heat, and it simply runs out of bandwidth. As AI models get bigger and clusters grow from thousands to hundreds of thousands of chips, copper is turning into the bottleneck that limits how fast the whole system can run. Not the chips. The wires.
The fix the whole industry is racing toward is swapping those copper connections for light. Sending data as pulses of light instead of electrical signals means way more bandwidth, over longer distances, using less power. This shows up under a few different names depending on exactly where the optics sit relative to the chip (co-packaged optics, near-packaged optics, external light sources), but the core idea is always the same: get light doing the job copper used to do.
Light needs two things copper does not: a laser to create it, and an engine to turn electrical signals into light and back again. Sivers makes the first part, high precision laser chips. It turns out a surprising number of the companies building the second part, the optical engines, all rely on Sivers as their light source. That is the common connection running through five of the six connections in this series. Different partners, different chip designs, different customers, all needing the same basic component to make optical connections actually work.
The six connections, quick preview
GlobalFoundries to AMD. Sivers’ lasers are built into GlobalFoundries’ co-packaged optics platform, which AMD is using for its upcoming Instinct MI500 chip, targeted for 2027. A real foundry relationship feeding a real, named chip, with the eventual hyperscaler customer still unnamed.
Ayar Labs to Nvidia NVLink Fusion to AWS. Sivers’ laser powers Ayar Labs’ optical engine. Ayar Labs sits inside Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion ecosystem, the same standard AWS just confirmed it is building its next chip, Trainium4, on. Which optics vendor AWS actually uses is still an open question.
POET Technologies to Lumilens. A confirmed Sivers and POET laser partnership, sitting one step behind POET’s real $50 million order from a startup whose stated first customer is a “top-3 hyperscaler,” named by people close to that startup, not by POET.
Jabil. A 2026 partnership on next-gen pluggable transceivers for AI data centers.
O-Net and Enablence. A three-way partnership building external light source modules for AI data center and high performance computing applications.
The Fortune 100 wearable customer. A real relationship, real dollar figures, unnamed identity. The community has been pointing at Apple, with a competitor’s very public collapse (a company called Rockley Photonics) sitting in the background of that theory.
There is also real activity outside these six worth knowing about: the ALL.SPACE satellite program, the Wireless segment more broadly (including relationships like Nokia on 5G mmWave beamforming and Tachyon Networks on fixed wireless access), the LiDAR business moving toward series production, and a funded defense partnership with BAE Systems and MIT Lincoln Laboratory. All of this is noteworthy and part of why I am bullish on this company overall. But I am not going to be covering it in this series. This series is specifically about the six connections that lead toward hyperscalers and AI infrastructure spend, so that is where I am keeping the focus.
One more thing. I am not the first person talking about this stock and I am not going to pretend I am. There is already a community around it. What I am trying to do here is put every real connection in one place, explain it like you have never heard of any of this before, and give you my honest take on what it might be worth once you have seen the whole picture.
What’s coming
The first breadcrumb is GlobalFoundries and AMD, the connection with the clearest paper trail of all six.
This is my own opinion, not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and this is not a price target you should trade on. Do your own research before making any decisions.